Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 14.172786 16.178852 18.329372 20.801738 23.560966 26.540881 29.997854
2025-09-14 11.434020 14.220042 17.428661 21.378582 26.090193 31.509337 38.191696
2025-09-21 9.689129 12.746396 16.435228 21.179241 27.080047 34.136952 43.169504
2025-09-28 8.015633 11.116583 15.024203 20.256203 27.016942 35.391362 46.472721
2025-10-05 7.329356 10.617158 14.910275 20.849259 28.761965 38.840803 52.531604
2025-10-12 6.702198 10.109733 14.707917 21.262084 30.240381 41.967728 58.275539
2025-10-19 5.994170 9.403485 14.152169 21.117133 30.912692 44.013820 62.635445
2025-10-26 5.371840 8.749660 13.598541 20.905062 31.437655 45.838073 66.725413
2025-11-02 4.903068 8.272022 13.246017 20.930523 32.261779 48.068412 71.420736
2025-11-09 4.532492 7.905341 13.018477 21.104296 33.280548 50.583462 76.581200
2025-11-16 4.145171 7.472865 12.651270 21.030175 33.909502 52.543800 81.002266
2025-11-23 3.777192 7.035390 12.237631 20.845492 34.342818 54.213112 85.038030
2025-11-30 3.500360 6.731512 12.021406 20.965936 35.262541 56.662157 90.358694
2025-12-07 3.342807 6.618824 12.105611 21.566313 36.950457 60.322469 97.616956
2025-12-14 3.051649 6.239904 11.714784 21.358623 37.336242 62.002379 101.928418
2025-12-21 2.668157 5.654278 10.925599 20.431037 36.503667 61.752369 103.257637
2025-12-28 2.568050 5.590002 11.035662 21.027728 38.179276 65.469725 110.841294
2026-01-04 2.447598 5.474661 11.044278 21.443935 39.565746 68.769820 117.870904
2026-01-11 2.256843 5.201868 10.746000 21.297797 39.988277 70.527679 122.500131
2026-01-18 2.074364 4.927695 10.423570 21.084175 40.275783 72.063564 126.808170
2026-01-25 1.937815 4.735532 10.240778 21.109813 40.972023 74.285435 132.287726
2026-02-01 1.829795 4.593667 10.143639 21.284892 41.932814 76.972140 138.603760
2026-02-08 1.702159 4.396278 9.922407 21.210214 42.437599 78.899809 143.711696